THE FUTURE OF IRAN’S DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT

The Democratic movement in Iran has close to one hundred years of history. It began in 1906 when Iranians opened the doors to progress and evolution in the constitutional movement. The latest display of this movement and Iranian efforts to reach a transition to democracy occurred in the reform movement (1997-2004), although this ultimately failed.
The main reason for the reform movement’s failure is as follows:
۱- The present constitution
The present constitution and its theocratic ideology strongly conflicts with democracy and fundamental freedoms. Under the constitution, more than 75 percent of power is in the direct control of the supreme leader. Elected body likes parliament and president are subordinate to non-elected ones. For example, the guardian council, six of whose clergy members are appointed by supreme leader, must approve any bill passed by parliament otherwise they do not have any legal value. The greatest potential for democracy under this constitution is less than the lowest capacity for democracy under a democratic constitution.
An ideological state based on a special interpretation of Shia jurisprudence, called Vellayat Faghih theory, is another problem. This idea is supported by security forces, some social groups and some clienteles that benefit from its existence are extremely opposed to modernity and democracy. Because of this, the present Iranian constitution cannot be reconciled with democracy, and does not have effective capacity for democratic reform.
۲- Tough resistance of Anti democratic forces and the authoritarian nature of regime
Anti-democratic forces, with the backing of the supreme leader, strongly opposed the goals of the reformist movement and plan of former president Khatami to reach democracy. They closed the reformist press, arrested political & civil society activist, and even killed some intellectuals. Specifically, the supreme leader, the most powerful man in the regime, has objected to democracy and human rights. He has tried to convert a clerical-type monarchy to a military autocracy by bringing Military forces to politic and government
۳- Weakness of the reformist movement
Khatami’s plan wanted to fill the gap between people and state. But the
Dominant forces in power did not accept this approach. During the battle between reformists and anti-democratic forces, over time Khatami gradually stopped supporting reformist forces, and without the president’s full support, anti-democratic forces eventually won out. Considering this defeated movement, nowadays there is a serious trend to follow a new way forward for Iranian democracy that works outside the power structure to peacefully change the Iranian constitution. This movement, which is called radical reform, has potential, but in order to reach this goal several points need to be considered.
First, how can people resist government suppression, human rights violations and the limited freedom of expression, press and assembly.
The Iranian government routinely and in an organized manner violates human rights and mistreats dissident and civil society activist.
This government also wants to carry out its original project of turning “Islamic fundamentalism into a world Power” But this utopia has not yet been fulfilled. The Ahmadi nejad State is trying to facilitate the appearance of Emam Mahdi and the establishment of an Islamic world government in the Mahdi’s control. Of course resistance of the people, actions of political dissidents, challenges inside the regime, and both world and regional condition have not allowed him to do that.
However, Ahmadinejad’s authoritarian state, which was created in a cheated, un-free and unfair election, still tries hard to reach this goal.
Human rights violations and atrocities have developed. The state tries to suppress any voice of protest, destroy the independent will of civil society forces, and force political rivals to obey the regime’s plans.
To resist and not give up in the face of these attacks has a very important role in strengthening the democratic movement and creating new opportunities for democracy. The reaction to the large protests of Iranian students during Ahmadinejad’s speech in university of Amirkabir, and the brave participation of women in protest meetings despite a lack of permission and police suppression, is an example of activities that need to be expanded.
One of the tools the regime uses to effectively control these protests is to prevent meetings and campaigns by not granting them permission. The proper reaction to this is to still organize protests and campaigns without regard for obtaining official permission or not. People should also design smaller scale actions where people can gain self-confidence and have their fears of government suppression lessened. To stabilize its position the regime uses its absolute power and discourages people from thinking they can defeat it.Defeating this policy depends on the extent to which democratic forces can offer feasible and optimistic solutions to get out of this dead-end. What this requires are actions that can push back the regime and gradually increase people’s hopes.
Another important question is the position democratic forces take regarding the nuclear issue.
There are several views regarding this:
-Some believe that external pressure will cause the regime to intensify suppression of democratic forces inside the country, and will lead to the extermination of the minimal civil liberties which currently exist.
-On the contrary, some believe that external pressure, if in the framework of democracy, human rights, and taking into account the best interests of Iranian people, would have a positive effect.
-Lastly, some are worried about the possibility of military intervention and the impact it could have on undermining the Iranian economy. They fear that the conflict in Iraq could spread to Iran and lead to insecurity throughout the entire Middle East.
There is no doubt that the policy of the international community will directly impact Iran. Given the current confrontation between the main world powers and the Islamic Republic, it is critical to opt for a realistic and rationalistic policy. Military confrontation, or making accords with the authoritarian regime of Iran, is both flawed policies.
If external pressures will coincide with internal pressures, if they are both aimed at promoting democracy and human rights principles, and if the right of Iranian people to choose their own destiny is not be violated, then they can lead to a peaceful transition into democracy in Iran. If human rights considerations are added to the policy, external pressure can also weaken regime’s suppression of the Iranian people.
The last point is how to present a democratic solution to the problem of the deteriorating Iranian economy. Most of the Iranian masses think of democracy as irrelevant to their daily lives and see it as a luxury that belongs exclusively to the elite. The poor and the working class have always been manipulated by the ruling class, and have been used to suppress democratic forces. Democracy will be widely spread in Iran if it is explained to the masses in their own language that it can serve as a means to eradicate poverty.
The economic crisis in Iran, which has gotten much worse due to Ahmadinejad’s policies, is one of the main break lines between the regime and the masses. Ahmadinejad’s failure to fulfill his promises to improve the economy and welfare system might well become the “Achilles’’ heel” of the Iranian regime. Economic development in Iran is only possible if the power structure is fundamentally changed.
This speech performed in MEI in 23 Jan 2007